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White Kingsley Keke Jersey , what don’t we understand, and what’s with those graphs?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCSTShareTweetShareShareHow can a stat-head properly contextualize NFL Scouting Combine results?Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY SportsI fully admit to not being a great watcher of tape. This is partially because I am, generally speaking, a skeptic of the scouting process, and partially because there are some aspects of the sport like technical offensive line play that are best left to those with experience at the position. It’s good and useful to understand your limitations.That said, it’s also good to understand your strengths, and the world of math has plenty to say about scouting if used properly. Here, I wanted to lay out those strengths, my favorite tools, and where the Ted Thompson regime may have gone off the rails. 1. RAS and MockdraftablesKent Lee Platte (@Mathbomb on twitter) writes for our sister site, Pride of Detroit, and is the creator of RAS (Relative Athletic Score). We’ve seen plenty of attempts at a composite athletic profiles, from Sparq to Speed Score to Freak Score, but RAS is my personal favorite. The best thing about RAS is that Kent clearly put a lot of thought and research into what makes each position successful. RAS is simple in its presentation, with breakdowns of athletic measurables into “Explosion” and “Agility”. Kent is also both humble and clear in his explanations on what RAS is and is not. One of my biggest issues with Pro Football Focus’ grades is that they purport to be somewhat all-encompassing. Kent is not a scout in the traditional sense, and RAS tells you only what it tells you. Good technique and drive can overcome a lack of athleticism sometimes, and RAS will not capture that. However, athletic players are more likely to succeed, and picking from that pool can be a recipe for success. Where RAS succeeds in logic and presentation, Mockdraftables fails miserably. I will confess to having a soft spot for Mockdraftables and its radar charts, and I find their comparables to be great fun. If you ignore presentation, it’s a fine repository of combine results. But...it also makes no sense. Take a look at Jordy here. Radar charts are all about presenting information through the total area covered by the chart. In theory, someone with a huge radar (in terms of area) should be better than someone with a smaller radar. Nelson gets a huge amount of chart area from height-weight-hand size-arm length. That’s frankly ridiculous. Because not every player runs every drill, Mockdraftable charts are also not uniform, and given how the metrics line up on the rim, it can present a completely distorted picture. It’s all very silly. Nelson was a great player, but this chart doesn’t tell you why that was at all, and what it does tell you is basically useless, as Nelson’s vertical and shuttle did not seem to impact his professional prospects. Fundamentally, Mockdraftables charts obscure what is important, and highlight aspects that simply don’t matter. That said, they do look cool. 2. Unmeasurable AthleticismThe combine is fine, and a lot of people love it Josh Jackson Jersey , but it’s worth remembering that it is a small sample size event that everyone weights too heavily. The fact of the matter is that teams spend an inordinate amount of time watching tape, and they can pick up on most of these measurables through computer-assisted tape analysis, over a much larger sample. There are also aspects of physical athleticism that are difficult to measure. Football is partially about strength, speed, and agility, but it is also almost as much about body control, and proprioception. For quarterbacks, a position for which body control and precise movement is paramount, the combine is nearly worthless in making judgments. Athletic profiles and combine scores work better for some positions than others, and knowing which are which makes an enormous difference.3. Good at FootballThere are also certain advanced football skills that can close the athletic gap. The easy one to point to is crisp route running. One of the easiest ways to separate good receivers from bad receivers is to simply watch who makes sharp breaks when they change direction, and who rounds off their routes. It seems like such a simple thing, yet so many players don’t seem to grasp the importance of squared routes. Likewise, a defensive player who commits to proper technique and who takes proper routes can compensate for a lack of athleticism by giving himself less space to cover. This is where scouts make their money, as identifying transferable on-field skills is worth its weight in gold. 4. The Packers and RASThe Packers’ 2016 and 2017 draft classes were extremely athletic, ranking 4th and 3rd respectively. They were also kind of terrible. While there were some winners (Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Kyler Fackrell) there are also some players who look big busts (Jason Spriggs, Josh Jones)The Packers are famous for their athletic thresholds on positions (editor’s note: we’ll go over some of the top combine performers against those thresholds in the coming days), and they rarely stray, but I do wonder sometimes if their current front office may be a bit heavy on metics and light on scouting. Ted Thompson in his prime was a master at the soft part of scouting, especially for wide receivers. Near the end of his tenure he seemed to rely more heavily on athletic profiles to his detriment. Let’s take a quick look at Jason Spriggs, who put up outstanding athletic scores across the board. There is, of course, an elephant in the profile. Spriggs was very light, and he also played light. While it’s true that players can and do add bulk and strength after their college days, Spriggs needed to add a lot to be really effective, and adding weight can have an adverse impact on your other skills. RAS provides a helpful red warning flag. “Playing heavy” is also its own unique skill, and Spriggs had never done it, or looked as if he could. The Packers have their minimums, but in this case, they missed a category where a minimum would have saved them. For tackles, weight is important. Spriggs excelled at the 40-yard dash, but honestly JK Scott Jersey , who cares? Spriggs’ profile would be fantastic with another 15 pounds on him, but as it stands, it’s clear the Packers focused on things that just aren’t as important for tackles, while ignoring the (lack of) elephant in the room.5. The New RegimeStat nerds have a reputation for ignoring scouting to their detriment, but ultimately numbers and tape need to work together. Numbers can tell you how explosive or shifty a player is in a quantifiable fashion. They can even tell you what skills are likely to make a player successful. However, it’s important to use those numbers properly, as context for how the player actually plays, and for contextualizing limitations. The old Packer regime was actually quite progressive for their day, but they were eventually passed by more modern organizations. The new blood can show of their moxie in this draft with a deft blend of positional value, athletic assessment, and proper scouting. Every team has access to numbers. Kent does a great job with RAS, but the fact that he’s doing this indicates that every team has something similar, and likely even more advanced. The big advantage hanging out there for everyone is applying these numbers to specific developmental profiles. It’s no longer about identifying a Julio Jones. That’s easy. The challenge now is avoiding Jason Spriggs. No position group on the Packers experienced a larger makeover than the outside linebackers, which saw the departure of longtime pass rusher Clay Matthews and the arrival of two high-priced free agents and a first-round draft choice." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesAcme Packing Company homepageHorizontal - WhiteAcme Packing Companya Green Bay Packers communityFollow Acme Packing Company online:Follow Acme Packing Company on TwitterFollow Acme Packing Company on FacebookFollow Acme Packing Company on InstagramLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchAcme Packing Company main menuFanpostsFanshotsSectionsPackersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCDTSince the conclusion of the 2018 season, the Green Bay Packers’ roster has changed significantly. A large group of free agents, draft picks, and undrafted rookies will come to training camp to challenge for roster spots and roles on the team’s 53-man roster. Over the next two weeks, Acme Packing Company will break down the roster position by position and reveal our compiled predictions for the 53-man roster.Though the Packers poured a considerable amount of resources into refreshing their defense, no position group experienced more turnover than the outside linebackers. After a decade headlined by Clay Matthews, the edge rushers will now primarily feature two high-priced free agents and the team’s top draft pick from this past April. Such a shakeup would attract considerable attention on any roster. But for a franchise as steady as Green Bay, those additions represent a genuine sea change.Za’Darius SmithExperience: Four seasons2018 stats: 45 tackles (10 for loss), 25 QB hits, 8.5 sacksHow acquired: Signed as unrestricted free agent in 2019As the headline addition of the Packers’ offseason, Za’Darius Smith finds himself tasked with improving a pass rush that ran cold at times in recent years. While not a household name -- Smith played a limited role during his first three seasons with the Baltimore Ravens prior to a breakout 2018 campaign -- he has the ability to pressure the quarterback from a number of places along the defensive front.That versatility not only attracted the Packers’ attention, but it bodes well for his ability to perform well in Mike Pettine’s defense. The Ravens frequently kicked Smith inside during obvious passing situations, allowing him to better exploit his quickness against less athletic interior offensive linemen. That trend should continue in Green Bay, where Pettine also likes to shift his pass rushers around to create mismatches and maximize his personnel.Preston SmithExperience: Four seasons2018 stats: 53 tackles (five for loss), 16 QB hits, four sacksHow acquired: Signed as unrestricted free agent in 2019Like his more heralded new teammate Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith arrives after a promising but not consistently productive career in Washington. The latter Smith’s pass-rush production fluctuated over his four-year career, producing eight sacks during his rookie and third season while falling below five in his two other campaigns. The Packers apparently believe he can generate pressure more consistently in their defense and demonstrated that faith with a four-year, $52 million contract that includes $16 million fully guaranteed.The Packers officially list Smith as an outside linebacker. However, as with their other major free-agent pass rusher Rashan Gary Green Bay Packers Jersey , Smith will also see a significant amount of work as an interior defender where his athleticism can overwhelm slow-footed guards. At times, Green Bay might play both Smiths inside with other players filling the voids along the edges.Rashan GaryExperience: Rookie2018 stats (at Michigan): 38 tackles (6.5 for loss), 2.5 sacksHow acquired: Selected in first round of 2019 NFL DraftThe selection of Rashan Gary with the No. 12 overall pick surprised many observers. While Gary possesses top-shelf physical tools and pedigree, he never quite lived up to expectations during his career at Michigan. Part of that, at least according to Green Bay’s front office, results from the manner in which the Wolverines used Gary, but injuries also played a role. Gary enters the NFL with a shoulder injury that could eventually require surgery.While all those factors made Gary a head-scratching draft choice, he does fit what Pettine desires from his pass rushers. Gary’s size (6-foot-4, 277 pounds) and versatility should allow him to line up all across the defensive front and create mismatches. That should also help the Packers get Gary on the field with Za’Darius and Preston Smith at the same time, potentially creating a premium pass-rush personnel package that will keep opposing coaches up late at night.Kyler FackrellExperience: Three seasons2018 stats: 42 tackles (12 for loss), 12 QB hits, 10.5 sacksHow acquired: Drafted in third round of 2016 NFL DraftAfter a quiet two seasons in the NFL, Kyler Fackrell delivered far and away his best year as a pro. His 10.5 sacks led all Packers defenders and more than doubled his career total prior to that point. That leap turned Fackrell into an unlikely fan favorite (as well as his “Sackrell” nickname).But that production might well prove misleading. Fackrell turned nearly all of his quarterback hits into sacks, a conversation rate that appears destined for a harsh regression. Fackrell also notched most of them during two games, each against putrid NFL offensive lines. In his 14 other contests last year, he produced just 2.5 sacks and 20 total tackles.Reggie GilbertExperience: Three seasons2018 stats: 38 tackles (four for loss), eight QB hits, 2.5 sacksHow acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2016Ignored for the first two years of his career, Reggie Gilbert became a preseason sensation in 2018 and earned a regular role in the Packers defense. He registered career-best marks in nearly every statistical category and appeared in every game. Still, Gilbert faces longer odds to make the 53-man roster again given the additions Green Bay made this offseason.Kendall DonnersonExperience: One season2018 stats: (None)How acquired: Drafted in seventh round of 2018 NFL DraftIn Kendall Donnerson, the Packers have a low-risk, high-reward lottery ticket, one that spent most of his rookie season on the practice squad. If Donnerson can convert his robust athleticism into on-field ability, he could push for playing time down the road.Greg RobertsExperience: Rookie2018 stats (with Baylor): 33 tackles (eight for loss), three sacks, two pass breakupsHow acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2019After a four-year wait, Greg Roberts finally became a featured member of Baylor’s defense this past season. His productivity, though unspectacular, suggests he could become an NFL backup and special-teams contributor. Roberts earned a spot on the 2019 edition of Acme Packing Company’s UDFA prospectus.Randy RamseyExperience: Rookie2018 stats (with Arkansas): 32 tackles (seven for loss), three sacks, one fumble recoveryHow acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2019Randy Ramsey arrives in Green Bay after starting multiple seasons for Arkansas. Though his physical gifts pale in comparison to the likewise undrafted Roberts, Ramsey has a much longer track record of production. He appeared in this year’s UDFA prospectus.