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Each round of the playoffs, I forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This method was 5-3 in the first round and is currently 2-1 in the second round, with the Kings favoured entering their series against Anaheim (Game Seven goes tonight in Anaheim). More on context in a moment. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.9 shots on goal per game and the Montreal Canadiens have allowed 31.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 31.95 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Conference Finals: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Montreal 28.7 31.0 Carey Price .927 15.92 N.Y. Rangers 32.9 29.6 Henrik Lundqvist .922 16.33 Verdict: This series projects to be very closely contested. Through the first two rounds this year, only the two Los Angeles series projected to have a closer differential than the forecasted 0.41 goals between the Rangers and Canadiens, and both of those series were seven-gamers. Montreal has been a subpar puck possession team this year, but it turns out that they have a great goaltender and a dangerous power play, one that was 32% (8-for-25) against Boston. Knock off a few power play goals or give Price a save percentage below the .936 that he posted against the Bruins and it would be easy enough to see Boston in this spot. As for the Rangers, they were a strong puck possession club during the season that eliminated Pittsburgh despite losing the possession game to the Penguins in Round Two. The Rangers also have the benefit of good goaltending, as they rallied from a three-games-to-one series deficit, as Henrik Lundqvist stopped 102 of 105 shots (.971 SV%) in the last three Rangers wins. It would be too simple to suggest that goaltending determines this series, since both Price and Lunqvist are among the best, so there are other factors to consider. Both teams top-scoring forwards havent produced in the postseason. No one on the Rangers has more than Brad Richards nine points in 14 games and Rick Nash has yet to score a goal. Montreals big goal-scorers, Thomas Vanek and Max Pacioretty, combined to score four goals in Game Six and Seven against Boston, after combining for four in the first nine games of the playoffs. The lack of a go-to-scorer for both teams has emphasized the team approach. For Montreal, Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher, Daniel Briere, Dale Weise and Rene Bourque are among those that have risen to the occasion at times in the playoffs, while the Rangers supporting cast of Benoit Pouliot, Derick Brassard and Carl Hagelin has been able to score just enough for the Blueshirts to reach the Conference Final. If there is a single non-goaltender with the power to shift the series, it could be Montreals P.K. Subban, the top-scoring defenceman in the playoffs who has been in the middle of just about everything that happens with the Canadiens. If Subban is great, that alone could be enough to overcome the slight statistical disadvantage in this forecast. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 17.64 Los Angeles 31.5 26.9 Jonathan Quick .915 16.78 Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 10.71 Anaheim 30.7 28.8 John Gibson .950 16.56 Verdict: Since there isnt much of a window between the second round ending, Friday night, and the Conference Final round beginning, Saturday at 1:00 pm ET, were going to look at both options in the Western Conference. Chicago hasnt even played their best hockey in the postseason, yet its still been good enough to dispatch St. Louis and Minnesota. Corey Crawford deserves some credit, because his .931 save percentage in this years playoffs is right on track with what he did last year (.932) on the way to the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup. Chicago was a dominant possession team during the regular season, second only to Los Angeles in Fenwick Close, but havent held that same edge in the playoffs. Better opposition, and all that. The same could be said for the Kings, who earned 56.7% of the unblocked 5-on-5 shot attempts during the regular season, but havent held that same territorial dominance in the playoffs. The interesting thing is that, while hes had some strong games in the playoffs -- both this year and historically -- Jonathan Quick hasnt been much better than average this year. Its reasonable enough to forecast the Blackhawks to survive that possible matchup, and not just because we know the Blackhawks will for sure be in the Conference Final. When it comes to breaking down the Chicago-Anaheim series, the model gets busted by Ducks rookie goalie John Gibson. Its one thing to have a goalie that has played a grand total of six games in the NHL as the starter, but his .950 save percentage in those games, stopping 171 of 180 shots, is a completely unsustainable level of play. Thing is, unsustainable levels of play can get a team through a playoff series. Gibson was a wildcard injection into the second round, against Los Angeles, after Frederik Andersen was injured, and gives the Ducks a chance in Game Seven. However, its not remotely reasonable forecast to suggest that the Ducks would be 5.85 goals ahead of the Blackhawks in a head-to-head seven-game series. The Ducks arent as strong a possession team as Los Angeles, or Chicago, and have relied on extraordinary shooting percentage, in addition to their hot goalie. The Blackhawks have been a team of high-percentage finishers too, so the Ducks best chance, should they survive the Battle of Los Angeles, may be for Gibson to keep on keeping on. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Bill Hamid USA Jersey . Keenum will make his first appearance in a regular-season game against the rugged defence of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, where the fans just set a Guinness record as the noisiest outdoor stadium in the world. Justin Morrow Jersey .5 million, two-year contract that runs through 2015. Venable, the son of former big leaguer Max Venable, will make $4. http://www.usasoccerauthority.com/deandre-yedlin-usa-jersey/ . -- Canada played to expectation up until halftime. 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The 33-year-old right-hander had success with both Sunday, pitching six solid innings and helping the offence-starved Mets with an RBI single as New York salvaged a doubleheader split with a 4-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.PARIS - After two consecutive losses in the space of four days, the joy in Marseille has given way to uncertainty about whether the team is really up for a title push.Marcelo Bielsas team first saw its eight-match winning streak in the league come to an end with a 1-0 defeat in Lyon before Philipp Hosiners late strike helped Rennes to a 2-1 victory in their League Cup match on Wednesday.Although Bielsa rotated his squad for the match, the Argentine coach acknowledged that his teams disappointing results would lead him to rethink his strategy ahead of Sundays home game against struggling Lens.Another stumble from Marseille could benefit defending champion Paris Saint-Germain, which has cut its deficit to four points and appears to cope well with the absence of injured striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. PSG travels to Lorient on Saturday.Here are some things to know about this weekends games:___IBRAHIMOVIC PLAYING DOWN BALLON DOR CHANCESZlatan Ibrahimovic has been included among the 23 nominees for the FIFA Ballon dOr award but the PSG striker does not believe he has a chance to win it after missing the World Cup.Ibrahimovic, who has been out for more than one month with a heel injury, did not play in Brazil after Sweden failed to qualify. Despite scoring 41 goals in 36 games for his club and leading PSG to the league title last season, the prolific striker is convinced he will be overlooked.I think I enjoyed the best season of my career, said Ibrahimovic, who has never won the award. Many fantastic players have distinguished themselves at the World Cup, that will give them an edge. But as long as I can get results and play at a high level, I can aim for this award.___CISSE CONTEMPLATES RETIREMENTBefore retiring, veteran striker Djibril Cisse has one last objective: scoring four more goals.The 33-year-old Cisse told TV channel LEquipe 21 in an interview to be aired Thursday that his aching body wont allow him to play much longer.ddddddddddddIm in pain 24 hours a day, even when Im watching television in the evening. And I will be suffering for the rest of my life unless I undergo hip replacement, said the Bastia striker.The former France international, whose career was marred by serious injuries, has 96 goals in the French league and hopes he will hit the 100-goal milestone before retiring.I can grit my teeth during one season but it wont be possible to keep playing two or three more years, Cisse said. I think this is my last season.___RESURGENT GOURCUFFOnce hailed as the natural heir to Zinedine Zidane, Yoann Gourcuff had lost the habit of being at the centre of attention in recent years.The 28-year-old playmaker, who joined Lyon from Bordeaux in 2010, went through four disappointing seasons, losing his spot in the France squad and regularly missing games with Lyon through injuries.But Gourcuff is now again the talk of the town, having scored three goals in two games as Lyon moved to third place in the standings, just one point behind PSG ahead of Saturdays trip to Nice.Gourcuffs superb strike against Marseille last Sunday ended the league leaders eight-game winning streak and highlighted the former AC Milan players resurgence.It was a relief for Yoann. Big players make the difference in big matches, Lyon coach Hubert Fournier said.___BODMER EXTENDS NICE DEALNice defender Mathieu Bodmer has signed a new two-year deal that will see him stay at the southern club through the 2016-17 season.The experienced Bodmer, a former PSG midfielder who now plays in the heart of Nice defence, is a regular starter in Claude Puels side.Bodmer, who also had stints at Lille, Lyon and Saint-Etienne, has played 315 matches in the first division. ' ' '